Comments on: GOP sharks circle McNerney

By: qwicwted

qwicwted — Mon, 02 Aug 2010 00:58:35 +0000

McNerney is a rank and file Democrat – votes with Pelosi >95% of the time, he is a follower according to statistical analysis of bills in this legislative session. McNerney tends to cosponsors the bills of other Members of Congress who do not cosponsor McNerney’s own bills. In addition McNearny has sponsored 22 bills since Jan 4, 2007 of which 18 haven’t made it out of committee and none were successfully enacted. Jerry has portrayed himself as a moderate while voting lockstep with Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats on federal stimulus, cap-and-trade/tax and the government takeover of health care among other. McNerny believes in creating job, but only government jobs – not private sector jobs. Anyway, its time for a change

By: Gayle Kindall

Gayle Kindall — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 07:38:20 +0000

A Republican actually can win this district–McNerney is vulnerableand doesn’t belong there. David Harmer lives
five minutes from the boundary of 10 and11–his kids do sports in 11 and so that is not an issue–he’s closer
in than Garamendi was to 10.

By: John Feliz

John Feliz — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 15:46:12 +0000

When Jerry McNerney unseated Republican Rep. Richard Pombo in 2006, the local leaders like Bill Baker insisted that the district’s red lean would allow them to easily reclaim the district in 2008. Yet, on November 4th, a mini-earthquake shook the district: Obama won the district by 9%, a remarkable turn-around of 18% compared to Kerry’s performance in 2004! McNerney dramatically benefited from the 2008 Obama wave; he defeated his weak Republican opponent Dean Andal 55% to 45%. Andal proved to be a disappointment as he became entangled in scandal while fighting a Democratic wave election. Andal recently endorsed David Harmer, an out of district candidate.

A telephone survey of high-propensity registered voters within the 11th Congressional District was conducted after one year of Obama in January 2010 by Dane and Associates. The sample size of 500 yields a sampling error of less than +/- 3.5%.

The results showed that the district is returning to its natural position. What the GOP needs is a non-generic candidate who can gain the support of conservative voters to dump a far left incumbent, and it appears that US Marshal Tony Amador is the candidate who can do the job.

Survey results demonstrate a strong trend toward retired U.S. Marshal Tony Amador when matched against the incumbent Jerry McNerney. Jerry McNerney is upside down with 32% favorable and 38% unfavorable.

On the ballot question Amador led by a margin of 47.9% to 39.5%. The support for Amador came from two sources. First, Amador brings Republicans home. Tony captures 81% vote share among Republicans; slightly more than the 78% Democrat vote share enjoyed by McNerney. Even more encouraging, among independent voters, Amador captured 52% of the vote compared to McNerney’s 32%. If Amador can keep the independent differential near the twenty points found in this poll, Amador will handily win the election.

Besides campaign performance, the explanation for the above results can be attributed to the district. Historically the voters of the 11th District self identify themselves as conservative by a 2:1 ratio (60% conservative and 29% liberal). The enthusiasm factor favors Republicans by a difference of 45% to 24%, with a switch vote percentage of 11%. Obama’s 2008 performance in the 11th CD is history.

Importantly, Jerry McNerney’s attempt to sell himself as a conservative has been a definitive failure.

By: Jake

Jake — Sat, 06 Mar 2010 22:58:26 +0000

This group of conservative hacks doesn’t stand a chance against McNerney. All they can do is regurgitate right-wing talking points. I love that Harmer says “On election day we won – we lost in the absentee ballots.” What a complete lie, he got killed by Garamendi, it wasn’t even close.

By: David Frisk

David Frisk — Sat, 06 Mar 2010 03:41:13 +0000

Carpetbagging can be turned into an issue, especially in the poorer part of a district. Elected officials are usually the stronger candidates — something Republicans too often forget. Dems in California can always count on a mountain of money in contested races. Republicans, to put it mildly, cannot.

All of this leads me to suggest that McNerney will be re-elected almost regardless of the national political climate. Closer than usual, sure. But still a congressman. That said, I very much appreciate this detailed, informative analysis of the 11th district situation.